Box office analysts predicted Taylor Swift Eras Tour concert film release would lead to blockbuster-style opening weekend numbers, which were delivered. Although Swift fell short of the $100 million benchmark, domestic ticket sales topped $95 million, according to distributor AMC Entertainment.
Taylor Swift Eras Tour Record-Breaking
The theater chain has offered $95 million to $97 million for the film’s opening weekend, with an official figure expected on Monday. BoxOffice.com chief analyst Shawn Robbins believes the film’s debut is an undeniable success, and Swift, her fans, and the theatrical exhibition should celebrate the results.
The film has become the highest-grossing concert film release domestically, surpassing Justin Beiber’s “Never Say Never” and Miley Cyrus’ “Best of Both Worlds” record openings of $31.1 million and $73 million respectively, in a single weekend.
Taylor Swift Eras Tour film is the widest-released concert film in history, opening in over 3,850 domestic locations. The official tally will reveal if it surpassed the highest opening of October, currently held by 2019’s “The Joker,” and if it is the sixth or seventh-highest opening of 2023.
Word of mouth and fan love for Swift may drive more moviegoers to theaters on Sunday, potentially bringing the film closer to its $100 million gross.
Robbins warned that forecasts for the release of Swift’s film would be highly volatile due to factors like average ticket price, the success of Swift’s fan base in presales, and the effectiveness of traditional marketing in attracting non-Swifties.
Swift’s film, which was expected to earn between $40 million and $60 million, scored $39 million on Friday, slightly below the forecasted range.
Swift’s massive outpouring of interest and unprecedented release led to overblown expectations of a $100 million plus weekend, according to senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian at Comscore. However, this does not diminish the box office achievement.
EntTelligence reported that 60% of weekend movie tickets were purchased in advance, a record high. Typically, 40% of big tentpoles sell tickets ahead of time. Around 4.8 million people attended the film, with an average ticket price of $20.75, with 80% of the audience being female.
Swift’s film, which has a solid domestic opening, is expected to surpass the $262.5 million global haul of “This Is It” during its limited run in theaters. With weekend-only engagements, comparisons to other releases will be difficult, but weekend-to-weekend figures will be comparable. The question now is whether Swift will perform well for an encore, as reports of a spectacular in-theater experience bode well for the film’s long-term playability and guarantees it will easily eclipse the $100 million mark in the domestic market.